DFS

The Edge – DFS Week 16

As the sun begins to set on the NFL regular season many of us are seeking yet another thrill to make the season feel like it’s lasting just a little longer. This is especially true for those of us who have been eliminated from our dynasty or redraft leagues, but some of you are just getting over your defeats in the fantasy playoffs. Let’s try to fill in that hole that you are feeling with some cash acquired from DFS by taking advantage of some edges in this weekend’s main slate.

For this adventure we will be without the Ravens, Chargers, Seahawks, Raiders, Broncos, Titans, Redskins, and Chiefs. Personally, I am a little sad that DFS staples like Rivers, Mahomes, Chris Carson, and Phillip Lindsay will be unavailable come Sunday, but this does make it a little more challenging and therefore a little more fun. This week we must be cognizant of teams that have nothing to play for, but also remember that if they have an opportunity to play spoiler we must pay close attention.

Stacks

Baker Mayfield – $6100 / Antonio Callaway – $3900 / Nick Chubb – $7300 vs Bengals

The Bengals have given up five performances of 25+ points to QBs this season; more than anyone else on the slate. Along with that they have given up seven 20+ point performances to receivers and eight to running backs. The Bengals have given up the 4th most passing yards to passers and 4th most rushing yards to running backs. The question remains, “What receiver should we target?” For GPPs, we should probably look at Callaway because he has that boom/bust potential. Callaway has seen 5+ targets in 3 of his last 4 which should be enough for our consideration. The Browns DST might be a solid addition to this stack as well being that Driskel, in his last 4 games, hasn’t thrown for more than 250 yards and a TD. Over that same period he has been sacked 9 times, thrown two picks, and lost a fumble.

Nick Foles – $4700 / Zach Ertz – $5900 vs Texans

Do you believe in a repeat stretch run towards Super Bowl LIII? If you do then you should be all in on SB LII MVP Nick Foles. He showed up in a seemingly tough spot last week against the Rams and is looking to extend the life of the Eagles playoff hopes. Foles provides us our super cheap upside of that crazy playoff run last year. We take the possible upside of Foles and add that to the consistency of Zach Ertz. The beauty of this is that he had a cold week last week which will surely drive down his ownership. Foles and Ertz do have chemistry and we are sure to see it again on Sunday.

Game Stack: Deshaun Watson – $6600 / DeAndre Hopkins – $8600 @ Eagles

On the flip side of this game we should look at the Watson/Hopkins stack. If we don’t believe that the Eagles have found themselves on defense, then it simply makes sense to play a passer facing the 20th ranked pass DVOA defense especially when they also have legs. Other than the Cowboys, the Eagles have not faced a quarterback with the mobility of Watson since their before their bye week. Watson has averaged 40 yards on the ground over the last 4 weeks providing a nice floor on which to build. Hopkins is Hopkins; as long as he is healthy and facing a middling-to-bad defense, he’s going to eat. It is still recommended to bring it back with Ertz if you decide on this stack though.

Underrated Values

Adam Thielen – $7800 @ Detroit

This is the least expensive we have seen Thielen in a while. This makes complete sense being that he has disappointed people greatly in the past three weeks. The Lions have played two of the worst pass offenses in their last two games, yet their points to receiver average over the past month is still 13th worst on the season. With Slay expected to shadow Diggs, we should expect Cousins to take what the defense is giving him which would be an open Thielen. The Lions are 3rd worst in fantasy points to slot receivers on the season, so while box score trolls are off of him, we should be on him as a less expensive WR1 with the capability of being the top scorer on the week.

Marlon Mack – $5500 vs Giants

If Mack doesn’t have crazy high ownership this week I would be surprised, but that doesn’t change the fact that he has all the makings of a ‘free square’. He dominated a good run defense last week after Ryan Kelly returned. He is facing a team that just gave up a crazy performance to Derrick Henry. Mack should be able to put up back to back high-end performances and be the sixth running back to score 20+ fantasy points on the Giants.

Robby Anderson – $4500 vs Packers

Sam Darnold is starting to connect deep with Anderson on a consistent basis. We need to take advantage of this while he is at this price. The great thing is that Anderson has averaged almost 8 targets per game since week 7. It’s a rare thing to get this kind of target floor at this price, especially in a good matchup against a defense ranked 23rd in pass DVOA. Anderson is on the rise with at least 70 yards and a score on 4+ receptions.

Injury Opportunities

John Kelly – $4000 @ Cardinals

The Rams are leaning toward resting Gurley in light of the concerns with his knee and the playoffs on the horizon. Justin Davis is dealing with his own injury, and newly signed running back CJ Anderson can’t possibly pick up the whole playbook within a few days. That leaves John Kelly who showed he could play bigger than his size would indicate on college tape. He is one of the prospects I was most excited about coming out this year, but he ended up here. Perhaps he gets the opportunity to run the rock against the Cardinals who have given up 8 20+ point performances and the third most Draft Kings points per game on the season. His ownership is likely to be super low due to Anderson joining the team, but just maybe we get to see what Kelly can do and win some cash in the meantime.

Chris Hogan – $3300 vs Bills

Josh Gordon is suspended indefinitely from the league due to issues that seem to be related to his self-admitted mental health. Being that it is health related I will consider this like an injury that is creating an opportunity for Hogan. Hogan had that one big play last week, but we know he is capable of more. I expect the former lacrosse player to deliver on at least 4x value this weekend. People might lay off Hogan because of a stingy Bills defense but he should make it into some lineups; perhaps even a winning one.

Bargain Bin Shots

Michael Gallup – $3500 vs Buccaneers

Dallas may not have even gotten on the plane to play the Colts last week, but they should show up this week against Tampa Bay who is giving up the seventh most points per game to receivers on the season. Assuming Dak can stay upright, we should be able to look to Gallup for some cheap upside. Since Cooper’s Debut in Cowboy blue, Gallup has seen a steady increase in his targets each week until that goose egg last week. His targets should bounce back and he could provide some sneaky production for the price.

Darren Sproles – $3600 vs Texans

The Texans have one of the best D-lines in the game (ranked 3rd by Football Outsiders). The best way to beat good defensive lines is the screen game, and who better to exploit that than Sproles who has been doing it his whole career. Sure Wendell Smallwood blew up for two scores last week, we shouldn’t expect that he will see the same type of opportunity to rip off big plays like Sproles does. The Texans have allowed the 7th most receptions and receiving yards per gameto RBs over their last 4 games which should be plenty of chances for Sproles to help us cash in!

Advertisements

0 comments on “The Edge – DFS Week 16

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: