DFS

The Edge – DFS Week 15

What a crazy week with a few nutty finishes last week! The Patriots were shocked in the end by the Dolphins, and the Steelers revisit the woes that make us hesitant tp play any Steelers when on the road. The Eagles were unable to close the gap due to a fluke play on 3rd and 8 that allowed Cooper to cap off an insane day as well. I’m not bitter or anything…. We must put that week behind us and move onto week 15 in an effort to bury our sad feelings in cash!

Stacks

Kirk Cousins – $6200 / Adam Thielen – $8600/ Stefon Diggs – $7600 vs Dolphins

Forget the Bears game. The Vikings return home to face Miami who is not the defense that Chicago is. The Dolphins are giving the most points to passers and second most points to receivers over their past 4 games. REVA-FP shows this to be one of the best matchups to target on the main slate. Though Diggs had a dip in targets last week, he was averaging more than 13 targets per game in the previous 4 contests before MNF while producing 9 receptions 88 yards and almost a TD.  Thielen has been averaging 9 targets per game in his last 4 prior to the game against Seattle so its silly to pass on this volume.

Ben Roethlisberger – $6600 / Juju Smith-Schuster – $8500 vs Patriots

No AB? Well we know after the way that the Patriots lost to the Dolphins last week that Belechick is going to make some adjustments. He will surely get back to what has worked best in the past, and that is to take away the best weapon of his opponent. That’s not to say AB (only $500 more) can’t produce in spite of a defensive focus on him, but Juju is 1b to the 1a that is AB, and after his performance last week we should simply stay in the flames if Big Ben is back this week.

Derrick Henry – $5000 / Titans D/ST – $2600 vs Giants

This is only 10% about what Henry did last week, 50% what I believe the Titans have figured out, and 40% the matchup. The Giants have given the 13th most rushing yards on the season and they are tied for the 9th most TDs given. Last week’s game was an indication that Tennessee has figured out how to run Henry. While most of the nation is thinking that this was a fluke rather than the truth, it presents us an opportunity.

Pair him with the Titans defense who have held bad – middling offenses to 22 points or less. We know Eli and Co. have o-line issues so sacks are in play and maybe some picks. Tennessee should be able to keep the game lower scoring being 5th best in scoring percentage with only the Bears, Ravens, Texans, and Seahawks ahead of them. They are also 6th best on third down, getting off the field 63% of the time.

Underrated Values

Joe Mixon – $6100 vs Raiders

Oakland has been pretty good as of late against the run, but on the season they have allowed the 3rd most rushing yards. Mixon’s volume has been steady all season at around 21 opportunities per game. I’ll take this nice combination of floor volume and upside for this steal of a price especially with Mixon at home.

Dede Westbrook – $4500 vs Redskins

After seeing 10 targets last week, Westbrook turned in his best performance in a while. He should be able to do some damage against the Redskins (ranked 27th in fantasy points to receivers). If Westbrook doesn’t draw Josh Norman the entire game there should be plenty of opportunity to put up points, not to mention the upside of red zone targets (12 on the season). Westbrook has show some after-the-catch ability and Washington is second worst on the season in YAC per airyards.com.

Jeff Wilson Jr. – $4600 vs Seahawks

Wilson didn’t explode last week, but it was against Denver who has been good against the run lately. I overestimated how much they would be impacted by some linebacker injuries, and we were only able to get 10 points out of him. This week he faces the second worst defense in points to RBs over the last month: Seattle. This is the same opponent that hosted his 19+ point coming out party. This could be a trap game for Seattle as the 49ers look to playing spoiler this week. Don’t let last week’s performance dissuade you; he was able to post 90 yards rushing. Add a score to that and it isn’t even a question as to whether or not to play him this week.

Jordan Howard – $3900 vs Packers

This may be gross to you, but consider this theory that I shared with coworker that is an avid Bears fan: what if Nagy has been preserving Jordan Howard for cold weather games; the type of weather where it is significantly less attractive to tackle big backs, where late in the season defenses have a lot of wear-and-tear. Consider this: in weeks 1-7 Howard had one game with more than 15 carries, but weeks 8-14 he’s had 4 such games. If he can get the same volume and production as last week and add a score his value will be nice!

Bargain Bin Shots

Taylor Gabriel – $4.2 vs Packers

Gabriel has had fairly consistent target volume around 6-7 opportunities per game. This week he gets to face the Packers who appear to be reeling given the week 14 loss to Arizona. Gabriel hasn’t produced on these opportunites, but he has had to deal with Chase Daniel and a recovering Trubisky over the last few games. People may be crazy concerned about Trubisky’s accuracy, but with a full week of practice he should be better this week. Gabriel should give us a low ownership opportunity since people are increasingly enamored with Anthony Miller and his potential. Follow the targets, the production will come.

Tevin Coleman – $4200 vs Cardinals

Coleman has been terrible since week 9, but take a look at week 9’s results because that is his potential. Not to make excuses, but he has gone up against some of the best run defenses since his last good performance: Dallas, New Orleans, Baltimore, and Green Bay isn’t too shabby either. People are probably absolutely sleeping on him giving us a crazy opportunity to get cheap points against the 4th worst defense against rushers in the past month not to mention giving the 3rd most rushing yards and the most rushing TDs on the year .

Donte Moncrief – $3700 vs Washington

Westbrook seems to be the better overall receiver in what is left of this offense, but Moncrief has the most air yards (981) on the season among receivers with a salary less than $4k. While he hasn’t shown it lately, Moncrief has had a nose for the end zone in the past. He and Westbrook both had 10 targets last week which was part game script, but also we could have been observing Kessler’s comfort level growing with these receivers. He is cheap and not the worst punt if you need an inexpensive play.

Kenneth Dixon – $3500 vs Buccanneers

Dixon came out of nowhere last week, putting up 15 points against the Chiefs who have been middle of the road against running backs in the last month. How much more damage could he do against the Bucs who are giving the 3rd most points to rushers in that span. While he only saw 9 opportunities last week, this will keep him lower owned. We all know that Baltimore is the team least likely to be married to a runner, so why couldn’t we see a bump in his production. He was more productive than gus on a little over half the opportuntiy, and the team is sure to recognize that. Keep in mind Dixon was drafted by the team.

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