The Chiefs @ Oakland
Playing the key players on the Chiefs promises a pretty nice floor. We know Oakland is terrible. We know they have nothing to play for and there is no way Oakland’s defense suddenly comes to life against a top 3 offense in the league. Recent Earned vs Allowed Fantasy Point (REVA-FP) indicates the Chiefs have a top 5 match up on the main slate. The challenge here will be for you to figure out the who. Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, and Chiefs DST are all in play here. Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce are the most expensive plays at their respective positions at $7.6k, $9.1k, and $7k respectively. These guys should be this expensive being favored by 16 points so it could make sense to find value elsewhere. I do believe there is an opportunity to access most of the TDs by stacking Mahomes and the DST ($2.5k). This game is so juicy though that it may be worth looking at Conley in GPPs.
Jared Goff – $6.4k / Rams Receivers @ Lions
The Rams have the best REVA-FP match up on the slate for passers and the second best for receivers. Why there is not one specific receiver named here is due to the fact that Detroit’s DVOA defense against all receivers is 29th or worse. Detroit will have to pick their poison as the Rams spread the ball around. Out of Cooks ($7k), Woods ($6.9k), and Reynolds ($4.9k) which one to choose will depend on your specific budget, but they are all good plays. Taking into consideration that this is one of the higher scoring games on the slate, you will want some of this exposure. There should be plenty more passing than rushing here if we look at the Lions last three games where they gave up less than 60 yards per contest; in two of those games the Lions opponent put up over 300 passing yards. Stacking these players is sure to save you a boatload compared to the Chiefs stack.
Andrew Luck – $5.8k / Eric Ebron – $4.2k @ Jaguars
Andrew Luck has been one of the most consistent players in return on value giving us 3x return or better in 80% of his main slate appearances. The Jags appear to be unraveling with Fournette’s suspension, Bortles benching, and the firing of the OC so this could indicate an adjustment period at the least. This should translate to poor Jags offense, giving Luck and Co. more snaps on offense. In their last meeting the Colts put up 29 points on this once vaunted defense. On the receiving side of that production was Eric Ebron and his 3 TD game. Ebron at his price is a steal especially with Doyle going on IR. This is one of the lower totals on the slate at 47.5, but last season that kind of total was harder to come by. Twenty percent of your cap couldn’t be spent any better.
Jameis Winston – $6k / Adam Humphries – $4.2k / Cameron Brate $3.7k vs Panthers
Yet another high total (55) with the Buccaneers only 3-point underdogs Jameis save us a little bit of money, but we should be more interested in his eventual targets as they are significantly less expensive than some of the other options on the slate. The Panthers are great in DVOA against WR1s, but they are 20th or worse against other receivers and the tight end (30th). The Bucs also have the 2nd best total REVA-FP match up for week 13 which should be encouraging. The Panthers have allowed 300+ yards passing in 2 of their last three, and we should expect that Winston will make it 3 of their last 4.
Game Stack: Cam Newton – $6.4k / Christian McCaffrey – $8.8k @ Buccaneers
REVA-FP (3rd best for RBs) points me to McCaffrey in this spot and because of his monster week last week it makes sense to stay in the flames. Cam has consistently use him as an outlet and the Panthers are consistently rewarded for deploying him in this manner. Cam and the Panthers are trying to stay in the hunt for the playoffs which could lead us to the over on the total. Gotta love that and fire these guys up.
Matthew Stafford – $5.4k vs Rams
Stafford is probably a forgotten man with only 3 TDs in his last 4 games and without a 300 yard game since week 8 against Seattle. The competition was still though as the Lions faced the Bears twice along with the Vikings and Panthers. The Lions are sure to be chasing points sometime during this game which should entice a lot more attempts for Stafford. Even though this situation looks bad from a DVOA perspective, REVA-FP gives the Lions the 7th best QB matchup and 5th best receiver matchup on the main slate. It’s hard to ignore this slightly underrated spot considering the Rams have given up the most fantasy points to the QB over their last 3 games. Of course this has a lot to do with the crazy amount of points yielded to Mahomes, but still the secondary appears vulnerable.
Phillip Lindsay – $5.4k @ Bengals
With the second best REVA-FP in the running game, we come to Lindsay. It is clear now that he is THE BEST running back in Denver, and the coaches recognize it. Cincinnati is 28th in DVOA against the run, their defense has appeared terrible as they have allowed over 200 rushing yards in 2 of their last three games. Since week 7, Lindsay has averaged 100+ total yards and a score on 17 touches per game. We should look forward to another productive game from him this week.
Lamar Miller – $4.6k vs Browns
Much like Lindsay above, Miller has averaged a solid volume since week 7 (19 touches per game. His production has amounted to 110 total yards and .6 TDs and now he faces the Browns who have given up the 11th most points per game to rushers over their last three. Further cementing this selection is the Browns’ 25th rush DVOA ranking. Even ruling out Miller’s ridiculous game this past Monday, he is still getting about 97 all-purpose yards including a couple receptions. If he can get at least that with a score, we get great ROI.
LeGarrette Blount – $3.9K vs Rams
CAUTION: this take is subject to game flow! However, many felt the same way last week facing a great run defense in the Bears (1st in rush DVOA), but Blount returned to his old goal line ways. The Rams are 29th in DVOA vs the run, and they have given up 116 rushing yards and a score per game over their last three. Kerryon Johnson shouldn’t be a threat to play after missing practice Thursday, and even though Riddick will be involved in the passing game it didn’t seem to affect Blount’s touches or production last week.
Bargain Bin Shots
Anthony Miller – $4.5k @ Giants
This is a complete dart throw as Miller has had a decline in targets over the last two weeks. Some of that has to do with Nagy, some has to do with Chase Daniel stepping in for Trubisky due to injury. I don’t believe for a second that any of this decline in targets has anything to do with Miller’s actual performance nor his work ethic. Figuring out how Miller matches up against the Giants 28th ranks pass DVOA is challenging because the Giants are dead last against WR1s, but first against WR2s. Nagy’s deployment of receivers would have us focused on Allen Robinson (only $5.7k) as the WR1 in this offense, but then again they spread the ball out to include Cohen and Burton. Knowing this is a complete shot in the dark, it may be a chance worth taking this week.
T.J. Yeldon – $4.4k / Carlos Hyde – $3.3k vs Colts
Fournette is suspended. Bortles is benched. Kessler steps in to toss the rock to who knows….. At least one player would and should be targeted frequently: Yeldon. Hyde is a consideration to show up here with his price at $3.3k, but the Colts are currently 5th in rush DVOA. On the other hand they are 30th in DVOA to pass catching RBs. Believe it or not REVA-FP actually gives Jacksonville the best matchup for running backs this week. Proceed with caution as the recent changes have created an instability that makes something unpredictable even more so now. The Jags being the dumpster fire that they are could have people fading them heavily, but this simply creates an opportunity for the brave, lucky, crazy, or stupid. If appearing stupid wins me a GPP then so be it.
It is entirely possible that Hyde can maximize Fournette’s absence despite the Colts season long performance against the run. He could give us the craziest cost per opportunity on the slate especially if the Jags try to protect Kessler by running the ball. Since the Colts allowed the 10th most points per game to RBs over their last 3 it makes for a great play. This kind of thrift store price gives us RB2 upside along with the cap space to play studs. Because of what his price allows players to do we can expect high ownership, but if he hits he is worth it.
Bruce Ellington – $3.5k vs Rams
The flip side of the game flow that is beneficial for Blount should work in Ellington’s favor. By now you know about Marvin Jones’ IR designation and Golden Tate is trying to learn to fly with the Eagles. Ellington now has a unique opportunity to establish himself as a critical part of the passing game for the duration of the season. Ellington had a lot of buzz a few years back that we never saw materialize on the field, but it’s possible this is a new beginning for him. The Rams secondary has been less than impressive for most of the season (20th or worse against receivers in DVOA and the most per game fantasy points to receivers in their last 3 games), and if the pass rush can’t find Stafford we should see some offensive production from the Lions. He has averaged 8 targets over the last two games and it is virtually impossible to buy that kind of receiver opportunity at this price. He only needs 6 receptions and 50 yards to return 3x value; imagine if he does that and finds the end zone? Yum!
Matt LaCosse – $2.5k @ Bengals
We have seen an uptick in targets to the tight end in Denver. Until his injury, Heuerman was the primary beneficiary, but now LaCosse has an opportunity to make his name known. The Bengals are middle of the road against tight ends from a DVOA perspective so this may not be the greatest play since they have only given up the 14th most points to the position. However, this is a great play if you plan to punt versus pay up for the tight end position this week. Who knows? Maybe he finds the end zone along with 20 yards and 3 receptions returning 5x value this week.