First of all, I must apologize for last week’s post. There was more information to be shared with you all, but something happened with my actual draft. It’s probably the fact that I update the article from several devices and forget to close/save before moving from device to device. Oh well, lesson learned. I was glad to see the Browns and Patriots stacks performed well, but the gamble on Josh Reynolds appears as though it was flawed. There were others in the posted I intended to provide, but that hardly matters now. This week’s slate deprives us of many chalk options, but there are plenty of great options left on the main slate.
As you all read you will notice that the Steelers stack is missing. To be honest, they are at home against the Browns in a high scoring game so it makes sense to flock to that game. It’s not that the game isn’t good for DFS, it’s just that every option feels “chalky” and was less fun for me to try and elaborate on the opportunities.
Jared Goff – $6000 / Todd Gurley – $9800 / Brandin Cooks – $6900 vs Packers
The Rams are at home again in what promises to be a high scoring game against Aaron Rodgers, who is looking more and more like himself as time goes by. If you don’t want to pay up for Mahomes Goff is an option that will save us some cash. While many may avoid him due to a lower rate of TDs since week 4, there is plenty of opportunity for the Rams to do some damage through the air. Green Bay gives up the 13th least points to passers and 15th least to receivers on the season, but we have to look at that in the context of who they have played. Save for the Vikings, the Packers have not faced an offense of this potency. Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods are only separated by $100 which is completely worth it for the upside of Cooks’ explosive ability. Gurley is a no-brainer considering his 25+ touch per game average and the amount of red zone work he is getting this season.
Game Stack: Aaron Rodgers – $6400 / Davante Adams – $7900
We all know about Rodgers when he is healthy, and we really know about him when he is pushed into a shootout situation. There is no reason to fade Rodgers even though the Rams have only given up two 300-yard passing games on the season. Looking at what happened when the Rams last saw a passing game on par or better than the current Packers, they gave up almost 400 yards in the air. The Rams have given up an average of 43+ points to receivers in their last 4 games which should be nice for Adams to get some work done.
Andy Dalton – $6200 / A.J. Green – $8000 / Tyler Boyd – $6700 / C.J. Uzomah – $3500 / Joe Mixon – $7000 vs Buccaneers
The Bengals’ down week against the Chiefs taught us a few things. One thing was more of a reminder of “beware of Dalton on primetime”. The other thing is that the Chiefs defense is starting to gel and will start to disappoint more DFS players targeting their defense based on season long average. Dalton has a terrible pass defense (dead last in pass DVOA) to pick on this week in his attempt to bounce back. This will benefit anyone he targets which is why all of the receiving options are listed here. It’s hard to determine which one will benefit the most, but playing all but one of the receivers (choosing between volume and cap space) is not a terrible play. If this turns out anything like when the Bengals visited the Falcons we are in for a treat full of fantasy points.
Game stack: Jameis Winston – $6000 / Chris Godwin – $4500 / O.J. Howard – $3500
This feels a lot like the recommendations above, but there is no doubt that Winston will have to chase points in this game. Why no Evans? Well after looking at the last two weeks, Godwin only has one less target than Evans. It just make sense to save $3300 at the cost of one less target, but keep in mind that Godwin has 5 more red zone targets than Evans. Howard has 7 more targets than Brate in the last two weeks and 220 more air yards on the season. He is simply a more explosive player for the tournament upside we want. Cincinnati presents a great opportunity for either tight end having given up the 4th most points to tight ends on the season and an 18-point average over the last month.
Patrick Mahomes – $7000 / Kareem Hunt – $7100 / Tyreek Hill – $8600 / Chiefs DST – $2600 vs Broncos
We are blessed again with the Chiefs on the main slate. Mahomes looks unstoppable and the Chiefs offense is ripe with points. What’s even more beautiful for us is that they hosts the Broncos which should make it difficult for Keenum and Co. to compete with the crowd noise. While this could be a lopsided contest, we saw last week how Andy Reid didn’t come off the pedal until the last few minutes of the 4th quarter.
There may be slightly decreased ownership of Hill if people focus on how the Broncos have allowed the 8th least points to receivers over the last 4 games which included the Chiefs. Tyreek did garner 13 targets in that game and has had 10+ targets in 3 of his last 4 games. Similar stats show that the Broncos are even better against QBs from a fantasy point perspective, but Mahomes went into their house and threw for 300+ yards and a score in addition to a score on the ground. Hunt is my favorite play in this matchup because I fully believe Denver’s performance against David Johnson was a product of a bad and banged up offensive line. Since week 4, Hunt has averaged 4.5 targets, 3.5 receptions for 55 receiving yards and almost a TD and now he faces a defense that gives up the 6th most fantasy points to rushers over the past month.
Andrew Luck – $6300 / T.Y. Hilton – $6300 / Eric Ebron – $4900 @ Oakland
It is so tempting to play all of the Colts on one lineup (see Mack and Colts DST below) . They are relatively cheap and they are producing well. T.Y. Hilton had a solid day with two scores, Andrew Luck has started to look dominant like he did a few years back. Ebron was a dud last week, but that was a product of a bunch of short fields and Swoope getting the TD. Looking at Luck and Ebron’s performances on the main slate it appears that they each have produced 3x or better value 66% of the time. Now these guys get to face Oakland who yield the 8th most points to receivers and 12th most points to passers. With unremarkable playmakers remaining on the Raiders offense it’s easy to see where there could be a lot short drives and turnovers giving the Colts more offensive opportunities.
Adrian Peterson – $4900 / Redskins DST – $2700 @ Giants
Peterson has looked solid while receiving a reliable amount of carries. Against Dallas last week he almost got 100 yards, and this week he should be more likely to score since the Giants have allowed the 8th most points to running backs over their last 4 games. The Giants’ offense still appeared to struggle on the ground against a lesser defense than what they will face in this divisional matchup. People may fear picking the Redskins DST due to facing explosive weapons like Barkley and Beckham, but they did render Zeke ineffective last week and their pass rush seems to be improving. Vegas seems to think this will be one of the lower scoring games on the slate as well which is great script-wise for both roster spots being filled.
Marlon Mack – $5400 / Colts DST – $2900 @ Oakland
I don’t know why I gravitate toward these running backs on the road because these matchups typically are not great for them. However it’s really hard to ignore running backs that “A”, put up the second best performance at the position last week, and “B” face the worst defense in fantasy points to running backs in the last month. On top of that, this running back’s team put up the 3rd best D/ST performance last week against another team that was bottom half in fantasy points scored in recent history. To keep piling on, the Raiders appear in disarray after trading their most talented offensive player, clearly indicating a rebuild has been initiated. Congratulations to the Colts on their impending win and to you the daily fantasy player for the points you are about to score off of this stack!
David Johnson – $6700 vs 49ers
David Johnson is still inexpensive compared to the premier rushers on the slate. We all know he has the talent to be one of the top 5 guys if he is used properly. With Mike McCoy fired (it’s about time) perhaps there will be an adjustment in his deployment. Assuming the change to be for the positive, there is an opportunity that arises with an injury on the opposing side of the ball. Reuben Foster went out with a shoulder injury last week and if that persists to keep him out for Sunday, then whoever replaces him won’t be near his talent level. This should create matchup problems and opportunities at the second level if the Cardinals can get DJ a little running room. This could be a sneaky upside play with very low ownership, and he should find his way onto one or two of your tournament rosters.
Phillip Lindsay – $5200 @ Chiefs
This mention here is simply an announcement of the increased opportunity that is now coming due to Freeman being sidelined. If deciding to play him some risk must be understood: Booker is still in the picture and we don’t know how willing the Broncos are to trust Lindsay with the full load even though they should see what the kid’s really got. We have seen the explosive plays several times over the season and we have all wondered why we see Booker at all instead of more Lindsay. Perhaps this week we will see what Lindsay’s floor could look like if he owned the backfield. He’s shifty, he breaks tackles, and he is a capable as a pass catcher so it may be worth the risk this week especially against a defense ranked 28 in pass DVOA to RBs.
Isaiah Crowell – $3700 @ Bears
This is somewhat of a contrarian pick considering the Bears rush DVOA ranking at 4th. However, Bilal Powell is dealing with a neck injury, and teams are reluctant to play around when the neck is involved. This should afford Crowell 20+ touch upside as long as the score doesn’t get out of control. Even if it does, with Powell being featured in the passing game we could expect those targets to increase for Crowell. 20+ touch upside at $3700 is quite the value. Circling back to the Bears DVOA against the run, the Bears have given up over 100 rushing yards in each of those games, including 161 rushing yards to the Dolphins. This is worth a shot in the dark if you need to save some cap space at RB or FLEX.
Raheem Mostert – $3800 @ Cardinals
Mostert provides us another possible way to get cheap exposure to RB touches. We were all surprised two weeks ago when he goosed some of us. Then last week he only mustered 10 total opportunities. Mostert seemed to be splitting with Morris last week, but it is clear that he is way more explosive than what Morris can offer at this point in his career. The Cardinals have allowed an average of 147+ yards on the ground and the 4th most fantasy points to rushers in the last 4 games. Included in that span was a game against the 49ers where Breida was able to earn ~13 points. If Mostert can get the same that is already 3x value and there is potential for more if he sees more targets than Breida did (1) in week 5. If Breida looks like he is going to suit up at all, throw this out the window.
Bargain Bin Shot
Anthony Miller – $3400 vs Jets
Miller only had two receptions for 34 yards last week, but that was on 7 targets accounting for the 12th most air yards last week. Trubisky missed him on at least two deep shots and one shot in the red zone. None of the incompletions fall on him for this game. All of the issues were with Trubisky’s accuracy. The Jets have given up the most points to receivers in the their last 4 games and the 8th most air yards on the season. Miller has the skillset to be a good YAC guy as well and the Jets yield the 7th most YAC so far this season. Anthony Miller is a ticking time bomb for opposing defenses and potentially for your roster as well…. in a good way.
Robby Anderson – $4100 @ Bears
The Bears are giving the 3rd most fantasy points to receivers in the last month and Robby Anderson topped the league in air yards last week. The Bears secondary has been suspect at best all season so Anderson and Darnold could connect for some long bombs on Sunday. The biggest concern is whether or not the Jets offensive line can delay Kalil Mack enough for Darnold to load up and throw the bomb. If they take a page out pof the Patriots play book and simply chip the daylights out of Mack, they may be able to capitalize on many of those opportunities. If you were to look up the definition of tournament play Robby Anderson’s mug shot is right there. Load him in a few lineups to save some cap and steal some candy from the babies that are scared to play him.