Lessons learned from this past week: Jaguars are not a dominant force on the road, the Bears secondary is still not good, Winston is good against bad defenses, and we can still play proven QBs and offenses against the Chiefs. Let’s sharpen our edge for this week.
Baker Mayfield – $5800/ Jarvis Landry – $7300 / David Njoku – $4200 @ Buccaneers
Last week may not have been the performance we were expecting from the Browns. However, this is the match up where we should get to see what we all thought Baker would look like. We were a number of near misses away from a big day from Mayfield. With the Bucs still giving up the most points to QBs and tight ends while also giving the 2nd most points to receivers on the season we could see the best offensive performance to date from the Browns. The ownership will be crazy low given recent performances, especially since Landry and Callaway combined for 19 targets, but only 4 receptions and 20 yards of production.
Tom Brady – $6100 / James White – $6900 / Josh Gordon – $5600 @ Bears
The Bears yield the 5th least points to passers and the least points to running backs. Fret not! Brady is much better than the last two passers the Bears have seen before week 6 in Fitzpatrick and Rosen. Last week Osweiler turned in a GPP winning performance against that same Bears defense. Osweiler……. let that sink in for a second. This essentially boiled down to a bad secondary and bad tackling which will be exploited by Brady and Co. Brady will likely use White to “run through the air” and if last week was any indication, Gordon should see some increased target share as his comfort in the offense improves.
Jared Goff – $6600 / Todd Gurley – $9800 / Brandin Cooks – $7100 @ 49ers
90…. That’s the number of red zone attempts the Rams have on the season. Thats 15 attempts per game! Gurley has the ball in his hands 41% of these valuable opportunities! It’s hard to pass up on him this week. The spread has the Rams winning by 11 points which indicates promising output by Gurley, but if the score gets out of hand too early it could impact him negatively as well. While the 49ers season has been doomed for a while, but somehow they have resisted giving points to receivers. However, they are top ten in giving points to signal callers and running backs which should manifest itself in a number of targets for Gurley. Brandin Cooks gets a nod here after watching what Rodgers and Adams did to the San Francisco secondary on MNF.
Kirk Cousins – $6400 / Adam Thielen – $8600 / Stefon Diggs – $7200 @ Jets
Cousins on the road has averaged 382 passing yards and 2.7 TDs over 3 contests. Now he goes to visit the Jets who have allowed the 10th most yards and scores through the air. With Adam Thielen being so consistent in his dominance there is no reason to shy away from him now even considering his cost. The stat sheets indicate that Diggs has been somewhat AWOL over the last few weeks, but playing cold players is often a GPP winning move so don’t sleep on him.
Colts DST vs Bills
Josh Allen looks like he will be out this week and their offense was already terrible. While the Colts defense hasn’t been great (6th most passing yards allowed), there is no way to imagine that Nate Peterman will be able to succeed where Josh Allen hasn’t been able too. We could potentially hope for a few picks from the Colts and a low score from the Bills to make this a solid play.
Josh Reynolds – $3500 @ 49ers
Cooper Kupp is unlikely to play come Sunday according the the latest injury report. This opens up an opportunity for Josh Reynolds who has flashed in the past. With Cooks and Woods drawing the primary coverage Reynolds should get a lot of one-on-one opportunities that could help him quickly realize 3-4x return on salary.
D.J. Moore – $3900 @ Eagles
Moore had a rough start last week with two early fumbles lost, but the coaches continued to believe in him. He saw only 5 targets in this game, bringing in 4 of them for 49 yards. While that may be seen as insignificant, it must be recognized that most times when a rookie loses two fumbles early in a game, you simply don’t see them on the field, much less in the second half of a game where you are trailing. This communicates two things to the fans and viewers. First, they believe in the talent. Second, the Panthers need his presence on the field. We could see a rise in his 5 targets, and now against a defense giving up the 8th most passing yards on the season, we could see some extra opportunities for Moore.