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Week 11 Recap / Accountability Blast!

Not going to lie, week 11 was not an exciting week of football. Outside of the Washington/New Orleans and the Monday night tilt between Seattle/Atlanta, there was not a whole lot worth taking about (well unless you are a Giants fan and beating a KC team that has just fallen apart is probably fairly exciting I guess). Corey Coleman and Dede Westbrook returned to action this week. Dede was about 165 yards short of his predicted 200 yard NFL debut. Coleman picked up right where he left off with Kizer, catching 6 passes for 80 yards.

Lets take a look at how my predictions panned out this week.

 

QUARTERBACKS

My Top 15 QBs for week 11 were; Alex Smith, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz, Kirk Cousins, Case Keenum, Dak Prescott, Derek Carr, Drew Brees, Jared Goff, Blake Bortles, Matt Stafford, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, and Eli Manning.

Actual top 15 from week 11 were; Russell Wilson (30.9), Ben Roethlisberger (29.0), Kirk Cousins (26.0), Tom Brady (25.6), Carson Wentz (22.0), Drew Brees (21.6), Ryan Fitzpatrick (19.9), Blaine Gabbert (19.6), Matt Stafford (18.3), Tyrod Taylor (18.1), Philip Rivers (18.0), Case Keenum (17.2), Matt Ryan (17.0), Matt Moore (15.3), and Marcus Mariota (14.7).

Review: 9 of 15, 60%. I will take that! I did well at the top but the lower end QB1’s and high end QB2’s was where I struggled. James Koh is the only expert I know that called Tyrod outscoring Peterman, who I did not think would play well, but didn’t imagine it would be so bad the team would have to go right back to Tyrod (who should have never been benched in the first place). I missed on Rivers, having him just outside at 16 this week. Again I didn’t correct for the possible increased offensive chances with so many turnovers coming from the Bills. Rivers going up against the Cowboys will be in my top 15 this week as last time he played Dallas he went off for over 400 yards and 3 TD’s add that with the fact that Dallas has been particularly bad on Thanksgiving in recent years and I believe in Philip on a short week.

Blane Gabbert played good in a game Arizona had a chance to win, but Houston’s secondary has been torched a lot this season, they find themselves 32nd in the league against quarterbacks giving up an average of 23 points per game. Tom Savage looked a bit better and DeAndre Hopkins had a solid fantasy day even being shadowed by Patrick Peterson, that’s encouraging but the schedule doesn’t get any better going forward with the Ravens on tap this coming Monday night. true story though, I am starting Gabbert or Savage over Derek Carr at this point. I am out on all Oakland passing game assets. I don’t know what the problem is but they look bad.

 

RUNNING BACKS

My Top 15 RBs for week 11 were; Mark Ingram, Le’Veon Bell, Rex Burkhead, Lamar Miller, Alvin Kamara, Todd Gurley, Chris Thompson, Kareem Hunt, Jay Ajayi, Adrian Peterson, DeMarco Murray, Kenyan Drake, Jordan Howard, LeSean McCoy, and Melvin Gordon.

Actual top 15 from week 11 were;  tied at 1st was LeSean McCoy (25.6) and Alvin Kamara (25.6), Mark Ingram (24.5), D’Onta Foreman (23.0), Latavius Murray (22.6), Samaje Perine (19.6), Le’Veon Bell (19.3), Dion Lewis (18.8), Jordan Howard (18.5), Lamar Miller (18.3), Alex Collins (17.1), Orleans Darkwa (17.0), Duke Johnson (16.6), Tarik Cohen (15.9), Devontae Booker (14.8), and Todd Gurley (14.6).

Review: 7 of 15, 46.6% Could have been better but not bad. I am always shooting for around at least 50%. I missed on Melvin Gordon but he was 16th with 14.0 fantasy points and was a top end RB2 and you are probably happy with that production if you started him. D’Onta Foreman had a breakout game but then was injured as he scampered in the end zone on a 34 yard run for his 2nd TD of the game, this is a tough break as he was someone I was very high on this season and he flashed his potential numerous times, none more than this week. Here’s to a speedy recovery for D’Onta.

Latavius Murray has taken back over the backfield in Minnesota but McKinnon still has a role. Minnesota has just continued to have a potent offense with Keenum at the helm and Murray is a must play going forward as he projects to continue to see the goal line work.  And speaking of time shares, the Miami backfield continues to be a mess. Both backs are seeing limited work and honestly we are just hoping to see one of them break away a big run, last week that was Drake and this week it was Williams.

I love seeing Darkwa get more work, I was higher on him than Perkins all off season and was just scared he would not get a chance this season, but he has and he is making the most of his opportunity, scoring 2 Touchdowns and averaging 4.9 YPC over the last 6 weeks. NY is always a better team when they can run the ball.

Seeing Cohen get more work again this week as well as Booker is also good for my heart. Rex Burkhead was my biggest miss with Lewis going back to getting the larger snap share. Burkhead was still used in this game he just did not find as much success. The New England running game is just not reliable for fantasy purposes. Start any one of them at your own risk!

Chris Thompson is lost for the season. Just typing that feels terrible. Injuries have been an issue for him throughout his career. I got that call wrong this week but I really hate the reason I missed it. Hoping him a quick recovery as well.
WIDE RECEIVERS

My Top 15 WRs for week 11 were; Doug Baldwin, Mike Evans, Michael Thomas, Tyreek Hill, Antonio brown, Brandin Cooks, Julio Jones, Adam Thielen, Golden Tate, DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, Alshon Jeffrey, Stefon Diggs, Robert Woods, and Dez Bryant.

Actual top 15 from week 11 were; Antonio Brown (42.4), Keenan Allen (40.2), Kenny Stills (31.0), Brandin Cooks (26.9), Adam Thielen (24.3), Larry Fitzgerald (24.1), Rishard Matthews (22.3), Danny Amendola (20.6), Davante Adams (20.6), Jarvis Landry (19.5), Alshon Jeffrey (18.7), Marvin Jones (18.5), DeAndre Hopkins (17.6), Demaryius Thomas (17.4), and Robert Woods (16.1).

Review: 6 of 15, 40% This proved to be a tough week for WR predictions.

Who I should have included that I did not was Keenan Allen was a big miss as well but he has been very inconsistent as of late and I don’t doubt some Allen owners may have even had him on the bench for this match up. He had not gone over 5 catches or 67 yards in 7 of his 10 games this season, and that includes his last 5 before this week.  On the other side I included Tyreek Hill and I should not have. The Giants suddenly decided to play defense and I am not sure how you are supposed to predict effort. But they found some this week and if I had known I would have faded Hill, who I am notoriously NOT high on.

Dak and the Cowboys continue to struggle. It looks like Tyron Smith will be back at LT for Thanksgiving and if that doesn’t make you want to give thanks, I don’t know what does. I am cautiously recommending any Dallas plays until I see this offense figure it out. On the plus side of things, at least Amari Cooper got a garbage time TD that gave him his 2nd best week of production this season.

Robert Woods performed well and snuck into the last spot as WR15 against a solid Minnesota defense. Woods hurt his shoulder though and is scheduled to miss a couple of weeks. I’m bumping values slightly for Watkins, Gurley, and Kupp going forward.

 

TIGHT ENDS

My top 10 TEs for week 11 were; Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, Evan Engram, Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, Cameron Brate, Jared Cook, Vernon Davis, Delanie Walker, and Ben Watson.

Actual top 10 from week 11 were; Jimmy Graham (20.8), Ricky Seals-Jones (20.4), Travis Kelce (16.9), Delanie Walker (15.2), O.J. Howard (14.2), Coby Fleener (14.1), Adam Shaheen (14.1), Jesse James (13.1), Levine Toilolo (11.1), Kyle Rudolph (10.8), and Mercedes Lewis (10.6)

Review: 3 of 10, 30%. This category continues to be hit or miss. The top 2 performers for the week were both in my top 4 so that’s not terrible. I missed Brate because it was an O.J. Howard game instead. Fitzpatrick seems to have a better connection with Howard than Brate where its the opposite with Winston. Evan Engram was an absolute no show and with Shepard missing the game I did not expect that. KC has been terrible against opposing TEs this season and NY has relieved heavily on Engram in the passing game, so it seemed like a great combination for fantasy success.

I can’t find any fantasy analyst that would have recommended Ricky Seals-Jones to you and don’t let them tell you otherwise after the fact. I did miss on Larry Fitz but I did not believe in Gabbert and he did step up, I should not have faded how bad the Houston secondary was for Larry in this match despite my disbelief in Gabbert.

Zach Ertz was a huge disappointment as Philadelphia rolled without really needing him this week. He at least still had 5 targets on Sunday, so he is someone I am not fading moving forward, but it would have been nice if he had held on to that 2 point conversion catch after the Jeffrey TD. I can only imagine how happy Hooper players were to see Toilolo get a TD and not Hooper last night. At least jimmy Graham had a huge week, and that’s with a 2nd touchdown that he let slip right through his fingers, right after a shot at the endzone where he got leveled by Keanu Neal on the 1 yard line. That 2nd TD was just not meant to be this week. His redzone usage is very encouraging though and I suspect he finishes out this season as a top 3 TE in fantasy!

 

DFS ACCOUNTABILITY

Kirk Cousins – $6100 @ Saints

Kirk delivered on his value as he was the #3 QB this week. He was able to take advantage of a NO defense that was sorely missing Marshaw Lattimore.

The rest of the QB recommendations were brutal however.

Derek Carr – $6400 vs Patriots

Should of been able to find success against a defense that has not been great against the pass this year but failed to do so. Derek Carr was not terrible, but you could not have been happy with the QB18 for this price.

Eli Manning and Blake Bortles as other considerations looked like good plays but both failed to even return value at lower prices this week as the QB 21 and 22 respectively.

At Running back Vern went 2 for 2 here with his busts being,

Kenyan Drake – $4800 @ Buccaneers and Ameer Abdullah – $4200 @ Bears.

Even at lower prices this week, neither were able to crack the top 20 at the position this week.

The hits were;

Latavius Murray – $4000 vs Rams and Melvin Gordon ($7600) vs Bills

Vern noted “The Vikings have produced four 20+ point performances from running backs, and the Rams have allowed 5 such performances (the most of any team playing this week)” and he was right on the money. Murray plowed along to a top 5 finish this week, if you spent $4000 on that, you had a good week. Melvin was a bit higher at $7600 but I think its safe to as a secondary consideration its a win as he at least returned value with 14 fantasy points in a PPR match. Gordon is no longer a part of the passing game but still will be featured in this offense,

Lets take a look at the pass catchers this week for Vern,

Michael Thomas – $7400 vs Redskins

Thomas continues to simply be reliable. Leading NO with 6 catches for 91 yards, its not a bad day but for $7400, I would have made a contrarian play and ponied up for Brown or Cooks as opposed to Thomas this week, but as always …..hindsight. Hopefully some positive regression is coming for his touchdown totals soon.

Amari Cooper – $6000 vs Patriots

We already discussed Cooper, in a daily setting this performance was a let down for sure. Seemed like a good spot for him to go off and he just did not.

Josh Doctson – $4000 @Saints

Doctson has a decent day with 4 catches for 81 yards. For the price that’s about the base level you hope for but its not a dud of an afternoon either.

Other considerations were a mixed bag with Jamison Crowder catching 7 passses for 72 yards (not terrible for the price but not a winning play per se) and Dede Westbrook posting a mediocre 3 for 35. I like Dede moving forward and see good things in his future but i would hold off on him as a daily play for now.

Marcedes Lewis – $2700 @ Browns

Heck of a call here! 10.6 PPR points for $2700 for a Tight End is what you hope for. If you made this play and used the other funds on Brown, McCoy, or Ingram, congrats!

Tyler Kroft – $2900 @ Broncos

Not a bad call here, he still had a touchdown and scored 9.2 PPR points this week.

But by far Vern’s best call of the week was;

Chargers – $3000 vs Bills

“Nate Peterman is starting for the Bills this week, and this is a simple decision to bet against the backup” Proof that sometimes its just best to not overthink things. As Matt Kelley always says, “Fantasy football doesn’t have to be hard!”

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